2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

What Florida Property Owners Need to Know

We are less than four months away from the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1), and early analysis indicates that 2026 could be a near-average season — but for Florida, that never means a “quiet season.”

At Trust Claims Consultants, we work directly with property owners throughout Central and South Florida, so our focus is on what truly matters: what could develop in the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico — and how it could impact your property and your insurance policy.

ENSO 2026: Transition Toward El Niño

According to the most recent report issued in January by the National Weather Service and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center:

• 75% probability of transitioning to ENSO-Neutral conditions by late winter / early spring.

• High probability of a moderate El Niño developing by late spring and summer 2026.
  

  

What Does This Mean for the Atlantic?

El Niño conditions tend to:

• Increase wind shear across the Caribbean and the Main Development Region (MDR).

• Reduce the overall number of intense hurricanes.

• Limit rapid strengthening of tropical systems.

However, it’s important to understand something critical for Florida:

Many storms that impact our state do not necessarily form in the deep MDR. Instead, they often develop in the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, where the influence of El Niño may be less significant.

A Warmer-Than-Normal Atlantic

One factor drawing attention is that large portions of the tropical Atlantic are experiencing above-average sea surface temperatures.

Warmer waters mean:

• More available energy.

• Greater potential for rapid intensification.

• Increased atmospheric moisture content.

Even in El Niño years, if waters in the western Atlantic and Gulf remain warm, the risk to Florida stays elevated.

First 2026 Atlantic Forecast

The group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its first outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:

• 14 tropical storms

• 7 hurricanes

• 3 major hurricanes

These numbers are very close to the 1991–2020 climatological average.

The forecast is based on data collected through November 2025 and still carries some uncertainty due to the projected evolution of El Niño during the summer and fall.

⚠️ For Florida, “Average” Does Not Mean Low Impact

In our experience as Public Adjusters in Florida, an average season can still include:

• A single significant hurricane making landfall.

• Systems that rapidly intensify near the Gulf.

• Storms that cause extensive water damage without reaching major hurricane status.

Florida does not need 10 direct impacts to generate millions in losses.One single event can damage roofs, cause water intrusion, trigger mold claims, and lead to insurance disputes.

What Florida Homeowners Should Do Now

At Trust Claims Consultants, we can help you prepare before June by:

1️⃣ Reviewing Your Policy

• Verify your hurricane deductible.

• Confirm roof coverage limits.

• Review water damage exclusions.

2️⃣ Documenting Your Property

• Take current photos and video of your roof and exterior.

• Store a digital copy of your policy.

3️⃣ Evaluating Vulnerabilities

• Check window sealing.

• Inspect flashing and shingles.

• Clear drains and gutters.

  
  

The 2026 Atlantic season may be near average in numbers, but for Florida, risk is always local and specific.

We will continue monitoring updates as we approach June 1.

If you would like a preventive policy review or have questions about your coverage before the season begins, our team is available to assist you.

Trust Claims Consultants

Representing Florida homeowners when they need it most.